Embattled Warren Mayor Jim Fouts’ re-election chances in 2019 are at best a coin flip, according to new polling from DiSano Strategies. The survey shows Fouts failing to earn a majority of the vote even in a matchup against an unnamed opponent.
Fouts only earned 49% in the poll of 761 likely voters conducted from April 23 to 25, 2017. The margin of error is 3%. In his 2015 re-election, Fouts won with 85% of the vote.
“If Fouts can’t win an outright majority against an unnamed opponent, he is in trouble when a real challenger emerges. And I expect that one will after seeing these numbers,” said Joe DiSano, owner of the Lansing-based political consulting firm DiSano Strategies.
Polling conducted by DiSano in 2011 and 2015 showed Fouts headed to re-election with the support of well over 80% of likely voters. Fouts’ margins of victory in those elections matched pre-election polling. However, since late last year, the mayor has been embroiled in controversy after controversy after audio tapes have surfaced of him allegedly using slurs against those in the Special Olympics, African-Americans, and older women.
“Fouts’ alleged comments about African-Americans, elderly women and the disabled have caused a shocking drop in his support. Fouts is in the political danger zone now,” said DiSano. “At this point, Fouts’ best chance for re-election hinges on running against a fringe candidate like Macomb County Clerk Karen Spranger, whom he trounced in 2015.”
The poll’s methodology was based on the makeup of the electorate in last two city elections in 2011 and 2015. Both were low-turnout affairs where over 80% of voters were over 50 years of age.
In this latest poll, Fouts’ support among voters under the age of 50 was 37%. Among voters 65 years old and up, Fouts garnered 55%, which was still a significant drop from his pre-controversy high point.
“This poll is Fouts’ best-case scenario for re-election. He needs to keep turnout low and hope his senior base shows up. If a challenger can bring the under-50 crowd to the polls and boost turnout by only a few points, Fouts’ reign as mayor is over,” said DiSano.
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